有報道稱,朝鮮于當地時間12日7時55分(北京時間6時55分)從位於平安北道的軍事基地試射一枚彈道導彈。據韓國軍方消息,導彈飛行約500公里後落入日本海。日本方面稱導彈沒有落入日本的專屬經濟區。
巴殿君認為,朝鮮並未如元旦致辭中所說的那樣進行洲際導彈的試射,而是試射了中程導彈,說明朝鮮並不想激怒美國。另外,特朗普在美國時間11日晚與日本首相安倍晉三就朝鮮試射導彈舉行的記者會上也沒有講出非常過火的話。因此,美朝雙方都為今後如何開展對話,或者說接觸留有一個空間。
專家指出,以施壓促對話是朝鮮的基本打算。朝鮮此次試射導彈顯然是對美日明確指向自身的不滿,提醒美國不要忽視朝鮮的存在。
專家認為,朝鮮在這個時間點試射導彈可能有以下幾個考量,首先是對特朗普選舉前後對解決朝鮮問題態度的變化,其中一個就是美國防長馬蒂斯訪問韓日對加快薩德系統部署的態度,並明確表示指向朝鮮;其次是對美日韓三方合作的加強,並把日本作為美國在東亞的主要支柱,日韓對朝鮮的強硬使朝鮮認為需要對美日韓進行敲打。
巴殿君強調,朝鮮試射的中程導彈不可能對美國造成威脅,而中程導彈技術對朝鮮而言可以說已經基本掌握,所以可以認為這次發射基本上是一個象徵性和示威性的舉動,而不是一個突破性的舉動。
專家稱,特朗普並沒有更高聲調的譴責朝鮮,只是附和表示“美國將百分之百與日本站在一起”。美日在表述上還是有一定的距離。
巴殿君最後總結道,美國拉開與日韓在朝鮮問題上的距離,可能在對朝鮮試射導彈的戰略意圖進行判斷。美朝之間都在試探對方的戰略意圖,也都沒有直接刺激對方,為下一步可能開展朝美對話或接觸留下可能性。
© REUTERS / KCNANorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
© REUTERS / KCNAA view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
A view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
© REUTERS / KCNANorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
© REUTERS / KCNA / 資料圖片 /ArchiveA view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
A view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
A view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.
A view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.